By Christian DiMartino
The Oscar nominations are coming out on Tuesday, February 8th. As we might know, this is always a subject that I find myself getting really invested in. Even though over time I’ve grown to realize more and more that they’re a load of crap. What do I mean? Well they just seem to nominate movies that sound like they should nominated for Oscars, rather than movies that should actually be nominated. It all depends on the best campaign, and which studio forks out more money. Sometimes though, they do actually choose to recognize the best in film. Other times, they nominate Bohemian Crap-s**tty.
I gotta say it though, I’m not really looking forward to the nominations this year. I could be proven wrong, and maybe they’ll make some interesting, surprising choices. But judging from the precursor awards so far, that doesn’t seem likely. The ball is essentially in the Academy’s court, and after a dismal ceremony last year with some of the lowest ratings they’ve seen, they need a win. They need a slate of movies that are going to grab people’s attention. Last year was a weird year in which even I wasn’t invested, but they nominated some damn good movies that people barely knew about. This year, they have a pretty good selection they could choose from… and they’re probably not going to.
I’m all in on The Power of the Dog, Dune, Belfast, West Side Story, and Licorice Pizza. Even if I don’t love some of those, the admiration is certainly there. I’m less enthusiastic about the love that Coda, Tick, Tick… Boom!, Being the Ricardos, and Don’t Look Up have been getting. Being the Ricardos is… fine. It’s fine across the board, but who left that movie blown away? Not many, but it’s probably getting a Best Picture nomination. Who has seen Coda? Don’t know, but it’s in. Who likes Don’t Look Up? Not sure, but the Academy seems to love whatever their new lord and savior Adam McKay touches, so it’s in. Tick, Tick… Boom! probably is the least likely, but there is a lot of love for it apparently. For me it falls into the “it’s not bad, but it’s not for me” camp.
Look, I’m not saying that the Oscars have to only nominate movies that people have seen. Because then it turns into the People’s Choice Awards. But they would be wise to recognize something like Spider-Man: No Way Home, which is one of the highest grossing movies ever, in a time where people aren’t really going to the movies. It’s a great time, and it’s special and it made people happy. It made me happy, which is no small feat. But nah, they’re probably not going to because… Coda. Or shoot, nominate something like House of Gucci. Not great, but really entertaining and it would make things interesting. Oh but, Don’t Look Up was such a subtle commentary (actually, it wasn’t), it’s in. I think the best chance that a blockbuster has, besides Dune, is No Time to Die. But Bond has never been acknowledged for the top prize, and probably isn’t going to again this time. They should really, really at least have two movies in there that people have seen and that people care about… but nah, they’re gonna go with Being the Ricardos.
Now, I have yet to see Drive My Car. Frankly, it doesn’t interest me much. It’s a three hour movie about something I barely know about, but everyone who has seen it adores it. If we’re being honest, I think this will be the last minute Best Picture inclusion. Can’t judge the movie personally yet, but the movie has been critically adored, so it’s got a shot. But… I think only a small circle of people have actually seen this movie, so again, not ideal.
I’m not gonna go in depth with all of the categories. But I am going to say that every nominations morning, there are at least a few choices that raise all three of my eyebrows (oh yeah, never mentioned that before). I expect that here. Despite the buzz surrounding Kristen Stewart’s sensational work in Spencer, I think she’s out. Instead, it’s looking more like Nicole Kidman for Being the Ricardos (it’s… fine, but for me she’s actually getting nominated for Big Little Lies and The Undoing), Lady Gaga for House of Gucci, Olivia Colman for The Lost Daughter (my pick), Alana Haim for Licorice Pizza, and maybe as a last minute shocker, Penelope Cruz for Parallel Mothers. If I had a vote, Taylour Paige would be a contender for Zola. But I don’t, so nobody gives a s**t.
For Best Actor, Will Smith will probably finally win, and deservedly so, for King Richard. I would love it if Nicolas Cage was in the conversation for Pig, Simon Rex was along for the ride too for Red Rocket. Matt Damon also deserves love for Stillwater, Joaquin Phoenix is flawless in C’mon C’mon, and Oscar Isaac for The Card Counter. Seeing as they’ve just about all been mute though, you can expect Benedict Cumberbatch for The Power of the Dog and Andrew Garfield for Tick, Tick… Boom!. In perhaps a shocking but not too shocking shocker, Leonardo DiCaprio might squeeze in there for Don’t Look Up (as mediocre as it might be, that cast isn’t) and closing out the category will be Denzel Washington for The Tragedy of Macbeth. Not a lot of hype for this film, but Washington was nominated for Roman J. Israel, Esq. Anything goes.
For Supporting Actor, I’m a little less certain. Ciaran Hinds is probably a bet for Belfast, and Kodi Smitt-McPhee is a lock for The Power of the Dog. The rest is tricky. Could Bradley Cooper get in for his scene stealing awesomeness in Licorice Pizza? Probably not. Troy Kotsur is probably in for CODA, which of course does nothing for me. For the last two… I’m gonna go with two wild cards: Jared Leto for House of Gucci and Ben Affleck for The Tender Bar. Both of these are probably longshots (remember when Affleck couldn’t even muster a Best Director nod for Argo?), but it’s all I’ve got.
Supporting Actress is also a question mark. Caitriona Balfe is in for Belfast, Kirsten Dunst for The Power of the Dog, and it’s probably safe to say that Ariana Debose is the frontrunner for West Side Story. The last two are, again, a mystery. I’m going to guess Aunjenue Ellis for King Richard (to me, that’s a performance that this category is made for) and closing out the five is Ruth Negga’s great work in Passing. Not confident in any of this, but I have a good feeling.
And for the others…
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson- Licorice Pizza
Jane Campion- The Power of the Dog
Ryusuke Hamaguchi- Drive My Car
Steven Spielberg- West Side Story
Denis Villeneuve- Dune
Best Original Screenplay
Being the Ricardos
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Best Adapted Screenplay
CODA
Drive My Car
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Best Editing
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
Dune
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Best Score
Don’t Look Up
Dune
The French Dispatch
Encanto
The Power of the Dog
Best Cinematography
Belfast
Dune
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Best Sound
A Quiet Place Part II
Dune
No Time to Die
Spider-Man: No Way Home
West Side Story
Best Art Direction
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The French Dispatch
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Best Costume Design
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Best Make- Up
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
The Suicide Squad
Best Visual Effects
Dune
Free Guy
Godzilla vs. Kong
The Matrix Resurrections
Spider-Man: No Way Home
christiandimartino 
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