“I Sometimes Wish I’d Never Been Born at All!”: Final Oscar Predictions and Preferences

By Christian DiMartino

The Oscars are on Sunday, and normally I’d be all in. But this time, the end can’t come any sooner. I am sick to death of griping about this fairly weak list of Best Picture nominees and all of the other mistakes that that have been made. And bad mistakes… they’ve made a few… (if you haven’t heard, I’m not a fan of Bohemian Rhapsody in any way, shape, or form, and since it made a lot of money and magically scored a Best Picture nomination, you’re all going to keep hearing about it, because it’s your fault).

So since we are finally near the finish line, I figured I would dive into my predictions and preferences in the largest categories. This is one of those rare years in which I don’t think I can agree with a single choice they’re about to make, but this is also the same group of people who deemed Bohemian Rhapsody a good movie. But I’m always open to surprises, and hopefully there will be some pleasant ones.

Best Director

Alfonso Cuaron- Roma

Yorgos Lanthimos- The Favourite

Spike Lee- BlacKkKlansman

Adam McKay- Vice

Pawel Pawlikowski- Cold War

Will Win: Cuaron

Cuaron cannot be stopped. He has picked up the Best Director award at just about every award show so far this season, including the Director’s Guild, which basically means that he is a lock. It would be a stunner if he lost.

Should Win: Lanthimos

Roma is an impeccably crafted work of art, yet I was still left a little underwhelmed. This one is Lanthimos for me, easily. Lanthimos’ film is all over the map. It’s wonderful, weird, hilarious, totally nuts, and richly entertaining, and he directs the hell out of his central three performers, Olivia Colman, Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams- Vice

Marina de Tavira- Roma

Regina King- If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone- The Favourite

Rachel Weisz- The Favourite

Will Win: King

Here is one that is not totally a sure thing. King won the Golden Globe, which is a good sign. Yet wasn’t nominated at the SAG Awards, nor the BAFTA’s. You know who else went through the exact same thing? Sylvester Stallone for Creed. So… don’t be too surprised if the same happens to King. Yet I ultimately think she will prevail in the end, seeing as her performance has been buzzed about for so long.

Should Win: Weisz

King is great, yes, but a little too brief for me to throw an Oscar to. In what some might consider “category fraud” (that being someone being nominated for supporting when they’re actually a lead), I’m going with Weisz, who was born to play this role. Perhaps that makes it easy. But she’s such a pleasure to watch in this film. It’s a perfect performance.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali- Green Book

Adam Driver- BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliot- A Star is Born

Richard E. Grant- Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Rockwell- Vice

Will Win: Ali

Ali just won for Moonlight, which might cause an issue. They like to reward you, but perhaps not too much so soon. But I don’t think it will be an issue, considering Ali has also won just about every award so far and is pretty great in it. That, or they’re actually giving him an Oscar for True Detective season 3.

Should Win: Grant

I’ll start out by saying that Rockwell’s nomination is a joke. He is in it for 5 minutes. The rest of these performances are quite great though. Ali (another potential category fraud) is superb, and Elliot (finally an Oscar nominee) is brief but effective. But my vote was always going to Grant. It’s not really a matter of acting range here. But rather, he is so charming, and he makes such an impact here that it’s almost hard to believe that he’s only probably in it for 20 minutes. If anyone is going to take down Ali, bet on Grant.

Best Actress

Yalitza Aparicio- Roma

Glenn Close- The Wife

Olivia Colman- The Favourite

Lady Gaga- A Star is Born

Melissa McCarthy- Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Will Win: Close

How has Glenn Close never won an Oscar? Beats me, but she’s finally going to. The Wife was scheduled for a release in 2017, but was pushed back, probably in an attempt to give Close the Oscar glory. A good call that appears to be working, seeing as she has won almost every award. Colman could pull an upset, but I think they’ve made up their minds.

Should Win: McCarthy

Toni Collette wasn’t nominated for Hereditary, so this category immediately loses credibility. Having said that, these are all great performances. Close deserves an Oscar. I personally don’t think this is her finest hour, but again, she deserves an Oscar. I’ll just pretend it was for Fatal Attraction. Colman is hysterical. Aparicio, considering she’s a non-actress, is stellar. Gaga would seem like my obvious choice, but I’m going for the underdog here. McCarthy often times does movies that are beneath her. Not this time. Here she’s superb: she’s hilarious and unlikable, and yet makes you root for this woman even when you know she’s up to no good. And the way she plays off of Richard E. Grant is magical. Perhaps I’m alone here, but maybe if you all had actually seen the movie, you would be on my side.

Best Actor

Christian Bale- Vice

Bradley Cooper- A Star is Born

Willem Dafoe- At Eternity’s Gate

Rami Malek- Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen- Green Book

Will Win: Malek

Ughhhhhhhhhhh… Ethan Hawke is missing from this list for his magnificent work in First Reformed (the best movie of 2018 and a Best Original Screenplay nominee. At least they got one thing right). Malek, by the grace of God (and perhaps a little bribery) has picked up damn near every award for lip-syncing with goofy teeth in Bohemian Rhapsody, a movie I expected to make money and then vanish from existence. Nope. It’s still in my life, and haunting me further. Bale I guess could and should swoop in, but why would something try to make me happy?

Should Win: Dafoe

If anyone should have swept up every award this season, it’s Dafoe. Are you all blind? A lot of people accused Dafoe of stealing Hawke’s spot. No, Rami Malek and his gopher face did. Dafoe gives what might be his greatest performance ever here as Vincent Van Gogh, in certainly the most difficult performance listed here. If I were Dafoe, I’d be a little insulted that this award isn’t a given (I’d also be insulted if I were Cooper, who has been screwed over time and again this award season).

Best Picture

A Star is Born                             Green Book

BlacKkKlansman                       Roma

Black Panther                            The Favourite

Bohemian Rhapsody                 Vice

Will Win: Roma

I have gotten this category wrong the last four years, so maybe I’m not to be trusted. But let’s knock out the obvious. Black Panther is mostly nominated in technical categories, and they didn’t even nominate it for Best Visual Effects, which it probably would’ve won. It’s out. Vice (which I also don’t really like) and Bohemian Rhapsody weren’t very well received. A Star is Born has been pretty quiet, but could you imagine if, after all of Bradley Cooper’s snubbing, they decided to give him Best Picture? I’d be tickled. A lot of people believe in Green Book, but it isn’t nominated for Best Director, so I’m not betting on it. If The Favourite or BlacKkKlansman pick up Best Editing, then Roma is in trouble (seeing as it wasn’t nominated in that category). But… Roma will win. With Cuaron winning for Best Director, it seems like the safest bet. Plus the Academy loves to make history, and this would be the first foreign film to win Best Picture… well, ever.

Should Win: The Favourite

My “favourite” of these films is The Favourite, a film so funny and nuts, and yet wonderfully and shockingly creative. I don’t think you’ll see anything like it (or hear anything like that dialogue) for a long time. I love the look of this film. I love the performances. I love the fact that this film is dressed up like a boring costume drama, and yet it’s so vulgar and filthy. This is the kind of movie I always have the utmost respect for, in that it takes bold risks and manages to show us something inventive and new. Unlike Bohemian Rhapsody, which is a lazy, conventional, stupid, lame, tame cash-grab.

There, I said it. Again.

 

 

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